Why I believe the correction is over

What in interesting two days in the market. Yesterday a huge selloff and then today the huge fed-induced rally. I thought we still had a fair amount of room to go to the downside up until a couple of hours ago, but now I believe it is time to be long hunting again. My reason: all four of the indexes put in pink extended range candles today, many of them engulfing too.

$COMPX - Daily - 8 October 2014
$COMPX – Daily – 8 October 2014
$DJI - Daily - 8 October 2014
$DJI – Daily – 8 October 2014
$INX - Daily - 8 October 2014
$INX – Daily – 8 October 2014
$RUT - Daily - 8 October 2014
$RUT – Daily – 8 October 2014

I’ve noticed that all too often trends start and end with a big blow-off pink extended range candle. The lows of today are important – above and I am long hunting, below and it is all bets off again.

Indexes Holding Demand – 9 July 2014

So we’ve sold off for two days and I think the selling is done for now. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is down 3.83% over the two days, which is a fairly large move. All of the indexes hit daily demand yesterday so I took the opportunity to get long in a number of names, namely

  • SSYS
  • LNKD
  • TWTR
  • TSLA
  • IWM
  • BMRN
  • AMZN
  • NTES
  • SPWR
  • TTWO

While we are in an uptrend, I am buying dips and I consider this a dip.

$COMPX - Daily - 9 July 2014
$COMPX – Daily – 9 July 2014
$DJI - Daily - 9 July 2014
$DJI – Daily – 9 July 2014
$INX - Daily - 9 July 2014
$INX – Daily – 9 July 2014
$RUT - Daily - 9 July 2014
$RUT – Daily – 9 July 2014

We have had a big run, so I am a little cautious and keeping a close watch on my positions, but a trend is a trend until the end.

 

IWM – Potential Time Correction

The markets sold off a little today, led by the Russell 2000 ($IWM, $TF_F, $RUT) that took a 1.7% pounding. If you think back to the March through May sell-off it was the Russell that lead then too, so we might be in for a deeper correction. I saw no need to get short today into turnaround Tuesday, but I’ll certainly be keeping a watchful eye on the Russell for a while.

IWM - 180 Minute - 7 July 2014
IWM – 180 Minute – 7 July 2014

A market can correct either by selling off, or by consolidating for a while. We may be seeing the latter, with the Russell potentially trading in a range between $108 and $120. Until we break and hold either side, I’m going to consider this a trading range, or time based correction. Certainly something to keep a watchful eye on, as the Russell seems to be the canary in the coal mine right now.

 

Indexes In Demand – 25 June 2014

There’s been a lot of hoopla about the sell-off yesterday. It is important to keep perspective and watch supply and demand levels. To me, the indexes still look strong, in fact, they sold off right into demand. Until demand is broken, I’mm still bullish and a buyer.

DIA - Daily - 25 July 2014
DIA – Daily – 25 July 2014
IWM - Daily - 25 July 2014
IWM – Daily – 25 July 2014
SPY - Daily - 25 July 2014
SPY – Daily – 25 July 2014

Market Corrections

For anyone casually watching the market via daily newspaper quotes of the $SPY or $DIA, you’d think all is well and the market continues to fly. But if you scratch a little deeper you’ll find that all is not well, and it has been a very tumultuous two months for the markets.

Both the $QQQ and $IWM have been weak, with $IWM down 10% from the highs, officially putting it in correction territory. And moving away from the averages for a minute, a cursory glance at most charts will reveal some ugliness.

That hints at a large part of the story, which is the lack of correlation between the indexes. For example, the correlation between the $SPY and $IWM right now is 0.43, up from 0.14 (almost no correlation at all) only three days ago. That is very low considering the indexes probably average out at about 0.80 I would think.

SPY - IWM correlation
SPY – IWM correlation

It is a very tricky and testing time to be in the markets, so it is important to keep perspective. I’ve marked off the percentage moves on each index chart and will be watching those, and of course will honor all my stops if they get hit.

DIA - Weekly - 16 May 2014
DIA – Weekly – 16 May 2014
IWM - Weekly - 16 May 2014
IWM – Weekly – 16 May 2014
QQQ - Weekly - 16 May 2014
QQQ – Weekly – 16 May 2014
SPY - Weekly - 16 May 2014
SPY – Weekly – 16 May 2014

Many people will be watching the $IWM as the canary in the gold mine, especially the head and shoulders that is developing on it. That is right at the neckline now and has a measured move to $95, approximately 20% from the highs.

Keep clam and trade on.